Monday, November 5, 2012

0 What We're Reading Today: Brussels Edition (11-5-12)

"MORNING MINDMELD: Whichever way tomorrow's election tips, a bunch of smart and respected "experts" will have serious egg on their faces Wednesday morning. Either President Obama squeaks in, or we will have a polling 9/11: what Nate Silver refers to in his book, "The Signal and the Noise" -- in the context of the financial meltdown -- as "a catastrophic failure of prediction." Nearly every poll, nationally and in vital states, shows a jump-ball race, with a slight but consistent edge to POTUS. You've heard Playbook say it a million times: Any given poll can be wrong, but EVERY poll isn't wrong.
And yet, enough is uncertain about the samples and the mood of the nation that lots of people we respect would not be SHOCKED if Mitt Romney pulled it out. They're not expecting it, or betting their own money on it -- but it's not impossible. Put another way: Most Democrats will be surprised if they lose; many top Republicans will be surprised if they win. And that's what makes this such a delicious 36 hours for political junkies: The great political minds THINK they know where things are headed. But most of them realize they could be wrong.
BUY AND HOLD: We're sticking with our longtime prediction that the networks will call the race at 11 p.m. - the key states will tip together. And here's another little tip, from none other than Nate Silver, who ends his book with this sermonette: "[O]ur bias is to think we are better at prediction than we really are. ... May we arise from the ashes ... beaten but unbowed, a little more modest about our forecasting abilities, and a little less likely to repeat our mistakes.""
-Politico Playbook (11-5-12)

If Obama Loses... - Politico (Alexander Burns and Maggie Haberman)

If Romney Loses... - Politico (Alexander Burns and Maggie Haberman)

Five Things That Could Go Wrong on Election Day in Florida - Tampa Bay Times (Michael Van Sickler)

Strap yourself in, folks. Tomorrow is going to be interesting.


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