Monday, October 22, 2012

0 NY Times Votes Predictor Tool and my Prediction as of Today

NY Times has this nifty tool that lets you try to predict the way the election will go this year.  You can see my distribution of states here.  I was even more pessimistic than Nate Silver when he did his most recent electoral map for which, for me, bodes well for Obama because he wins in both of our scenarios -- only by a larger margin in Nate Silver's as Silver thinks that Obama will carry Nevada and New Hampshire while I give those two states to Romney.
That decision was based on two very shallow considerations: 1. that high unemployment in Nevada will make voters sympathetic to Romney's, "All that matters is the economy," shenanigans and 2. that New Hampshire will take Romney's anti-government message even though it doesn't make sense.  Also, when I played a rugby match at University of New Hampshire I saw more Romney signs than Obama ones -- but not by many, granted.

The very scientific "Cotton Prediction" as of October 22, 2012

You can design your own diagram and make your predictions using the link I embedded above.  Another useful tidbit about the NY Times tool is that it shows you the various scenarios both camps are hoping for.  Fill it out before tonight's debate and then place bets on who places the states correctly -- maybe I'll do that with my house.

Nate Silver's forecast for Nov. 6 as of October 22, 2012


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